Guest essay by Eric Worrall
From the “we have one US Presidential cycle to save the world” department.
New climate predictions assess global temperatures in coming five years
8 July 2020
Geneva, 9 July 2020 – The annual mean global temperature is likely to be at least 1° Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) in each of the coming five years (2020-2024) and there is a 20% chance that it will exceed 1.5°C in at least one year, according to new climate predictions issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, led by the United Kingdom’s Met Office, provides a climate outlook for the next five years, updated annually. It harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best computer models from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information for decision-makers.
“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris Agreement on Climate Change target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
Read more: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/new-climate-predictions-assess-global-temperatures-coming-five-years
The executive summary of the study;
Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update
Target years: 2020 and 2020-2024
This update presents a summary of annual to decadal predictions from WMO designated Global Producing Centres and non-designated contributing centres for the period 2020-2024. Latest predictions suggest that:
- Annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than preindustrial levels (defined as the 1850-1900 average) in each of the coming 5 years and is very likely to be within the range 0.91 – 1.59°C
- It is unlikely (~20% chance) that one of the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels, but the chance is increasing with time
- It is likely (~70% chance) that one or more months during the next 5 years will be at least 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels
- It is very unlikely (~3%) that the 5 year mean temperature for 2020-2024 will be 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels
- In 2020, large land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are likely to be over 0.8°C warmer than the recent past (defined as the 1981-2010 average)
- In 2020, the Arctic is likely to have warmed by more than twice as much as the global mean
- The smallest temperature change is expected in the tropics and in the mid-latitudes of theSouthern Hemisphere
- In 2020, many parts of South America, southern Africa and Australia are likely to be dryer than the recent past
- Over 2020-2024, almost all regions, except parts of the southern oceans are likely to be warmer than the recent past
- Over 2020-2024, high latitude regions and the Sahel are likely to be wetter than the recent past whereas northern and eastern parts of South America are likely to be dryer
- Over 2020-2024, sea-level pressure anomalies suggest that the northern North Atlantic region could have stronger westerly winds leading to more storms in western Europe
Read more: https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/WMO_GADCU_2019.pdf
I guess it is time to ditch all those floating European offshore wind turbine plans, if storms in Western Europe are about to get worse.
But on a serious note, it would actually be great if every year for the next four years is 1.5C above pre-industrial; climate scientists would then have the difficult task of explaining why the end of the world was indistinguishable from business as usual.
Sadly I doubt this hope will be realised, unless climate record keepers rewrite history again.
The future is certain; it is only the past that is unpredictable – old Soviet joke.
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