Combined with recent news that the Arctic permafrost may be beginning to fill the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, and that Greenland’s ice sheet is melting at an accelerating pace, it’s the latest hint that important parts of the climate system may be moving toward irreversible changes at a pace that defies earlier predictions.
The speed of the transformation in some key planetary systems, like Greenland’s ice and the Arctic’s permafrost, has “indeed been underestimated by climate science,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “And that’s partly because we cannot really capture them well in our models.”
In interviews, Lovejoy and Nobre said they decided to sound a dire alarm about the Amazon after witnessing the acceleration of troubling trends. The combination of warming temperatures, crippling wildfires and ongoing land clearing for cattle ranching and crops has extended dry seasons, killed off water-sensitive vegetation and created conditions for more fire.
The Amazonis now 17 percent deforested, but for the large proportion of it inside Brazil, the figure is closer to 20 percent. The fear is that soon there will be so little forest that the trees, which not only soak up enormous quantities of rainwater but themselves give off billowing columns of mist that aid agriculture and sustain innumerable species, won’t be able to recycle enough rainfall.
At that point, much of the rainforest could decline into a drier savanna ecosystem. Rainfall patterns would change across much of South America. Several hundred billion tons of carbon dioxide could wind up in the atmosphere, worsening climate change. And such a feedback loop would be tough to reverse.
That point of no return, commonly referred to by scientists as a tipping point, “is much closer than we anticipated,” Nobre said in an interview.
The troubling news comes on top of other alarming developments regarding the Earth’s climate.
Earlierthis month,nearly 100 polar scientists detailed how the Greenland ice sheet’s losses have accelerated in recent decades, growing from 33 billion lost tons per year in the 1990s to a current average of 254 billion tons annually.
“Greenland is losing ice faster than expected, partly because climate models aren’t good at predicting extreme melting events but also because many of the ice sheet’s smaller glaciers have started to speed up too,” said Andrew Shepherd, a glaciologist at Leeds University in the U.K., who led the latest study. “So the [worst]-case scenario now becomes business as usual.”
Separately, a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration report this month laid out the evidence suggesting that the global Arctic already has become a net emitter of planet-warming carbon dioxide due to thawing permafrost. That would mark a profound shift for a region that includes vast stretches of Alaska, Canada, Siberia and Greenland, and which has long stored massive amounts of carbon in its frozen soil.
At the same time, a global die-off of coral reefs in 2016 and 2017, which included the loss of nearly half of the Great Barrier Reef, shocked scientists who did not fully realize that they were capable of such rapid losses.
“Compared to coral bleaching in 1998 and 2002, the 2016 event was much more extreme — hotter, far more extensive, and deadlier,” said Terry Hughes, an expert on the reef and director of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University in Australia. “The reef has changed forever.”
While the speed of the changes involving the Amazon, permafrost and ice sheets have surprised experts, models that scientists created decades ago regarding the average global temperature have largely held true.
The world has experienced about 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, of warming since the late 19th century, largely due to greenhouse gas emissions from human activities.
But much of the Arctic has already warmed by 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, and some regions have even passed 3 degrees Celsius.
The Amazon also is warming at an accelerated rate. An analysis by The Washington Post of global temperature changes found that almost the entirety of Brazil has already warmed by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, since the late 1800s.
Because water evaporates more rapidly at higher temperatures, warming – combined with deforestation – is drying out parts of the Amazon and posing a fundamental threat to the rainforest.
In the southern Amazon dry season in particular, temperatures are already 3 degrees Celsius higher than they were in the 1980s and the dry season is also getting longer, exceeding four months now in some regions, Nobre said.
Particularly worrying, he said, is a vast recent study showing how trees are faring in more than 100 locations across the Amazon.
Led by Adriane Esquivel Muelbert of the University of Leeds, researchers found forest transition has already begun – trees accustomed to dry conditions are more likely to grow now while trees that require more moisture are disproportionately dying in places where climate changes are the greatest.
Paulo Brando, a tropical ecologist and professor at the University of California, Irvine, who has long studied the Amazon, said it is tricky to try to determine where the so-called tipping point for the region lies.
“The definition of ‘tipping point’ can be quite broad,” Brando said, so it’s difficult to say if the Amazon has reached what scientists would call a point of irreversible change. But this much is clear, he added: “We’re not moving away from that tipping point. We’re probably driving very fast toward that direction.”
The impact of changes to the Amazon reach far beyond South America. The rainforest stores an immense amount of carbon in its enormous trees, and if they die, that carbon is released.
In a radically different part of the world, scientists last week described something eerily similar.
Ted Schuur, an expert on northern permafrost at Northern Arizona University, wrote in NOAA’s 2019 Arctic Report Card that recent studies suggest that thawing permafrost — a repository for millennia of dead plant and animal remains — is likely now contributing carbon dioxide to the atmosphere as those once frozen remains begin to decompose. And the amount could already be more than a billion tons per year.
Schuur said he is not surprised to see such changes since he watches the Arctic system closely. But for the “science community at large,” he said in an email, “this is a ’surprising’ confirmation that the data show the Arctic currently acting as a carbon source.”
Schurr’s reasoning is based heavily on a groundbreaking study led by Susan Natali of the Woods Hole Research Center, which is in many ways parallel to the new Amazon study. It pools the results of large numbers of scientists across the Arctic to show that in winter, permafrost soils are already emitting a lot of carbon. And those releases are probably enough to offset what happens in the growing season, when Arctic plant growth pulls carbon back in again.
The models that scientists have used to try to determine how the Arctic region is processing carbon were too conservative when it came to losses in winter in particular, Natali said. As a result, the potential for a transition of the Arctic from a so-called “sink” that takes up carbon, to a “source” that emits it, may have been underestimated.
“The models, they project that to be happening quite a ways out in the future, but I would say it’s happening now,” said Natali.
As the Arctic rapidly warms, the reaction is anything but gradual and steady, Natali said.
Occasional extreme heat events can cause abrupt hillside collapses or “thaw slumps,” which rapidly expose very old and deep permafrost to the open air. Meanwhile, worsening Arctic fires can quickly remove insulating soil and vegetation layers from large stretches of permafrost, suddenly exposing it to the sun.
“It’s like you’re opening the top of a cooler,” said Natali.
While the Arctic may have already crossed a threshold, it is still possible to slow the transformation of the Amazon through reforestation, researchers said.
While thecurrent Brazilian administration is headed “all in the wrong direction” on the Amazon, there are glimmers of hope, Lovejoy said. He pointed to a meeting convened this fall byColumbian president Ivan Duque,in whichcountries bordering the Amazon created a pact to work on its sustainable future.
There is also strong public support in favor of protecting the Amazon, but that the world faces a fork-in-the-road decision, Lovejoy said.
“A tipping point is a way to talk about a moment of system shift or system change,” Lovejoy said. “In this case, it’s not going to be instantaneous, and that’s good news. It allows you to do something about it.”