Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Are Climate activists preparing their excuses in advance, for the imminent plunge in global temperatures predicted by Dr. Willie Soon?
Super-outbreaks of fire thunderstorms could change Earth’s climate, Australian and US experts warn
ABC Weather / By Ben Deacon
Fire thunderstorms — which occur in pyrocumulonimbus clouds — not only create their own weather system but may also be powerful enough to actually change the climate, according to scientists from Australia and the United States.
- Fire thunderstorms during Australia’s Black Summer released as much energy as about 2,000 Hiroshima-sized nuclear explosions
- Clusters of fire thunderstorms may be powerful enough to change the climate, scientists say
- Measuring the phenomenon as it occurs in North America and Australia has been used to validate the ‘nuclear winter’ theory
A “super-outbreak” of fire thunderstorms — also known as pyroCb events — during Australia’s Black Summer fires of 2019-20 released the energy of about 2,000 Hiroshima-sized nuclear weapons, according to a study published recently in the journal Nature Climate and Atmospheric Science.
“The energy released was just vast,” said Rick McRae from the University of New South Wales, a co-author of the paper.
“It doesn’t matter what units you use, they’re big numbers, far bigger than we’re used to handling.”
Mr McRae and a team of researchers — including scientists from the US Naval Research Laboratory in Washington — quantified the scale of the Black Summer pyroCb super-outbreak, concluding the fires injected as much smoke into the stratosphere as a moderately sized volcanic eruption. That smoke remained in the stratosphere for more than a year.
Is fire now in a climate feedback loop?
Fire thunderstorm super-outbreaks are now emerging as a potential feedback loop in the climate system, according to Mr McRae.
He said climate change could drive an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme fire events that, in turn, could change the climate.
Read more: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-28/fire-thunderstorms-may-cause-nuclear-winter-scientists-say/100323566
Rick McRae is a former firefighter who is associated with the highfire risk project run by University of New South Wales, home of Ship of Fools professor Chris Turney.
I think this excuse for climate prediction failures is clever – it frames any pause or drop in global temperatures as a temporary reprieve caused by our negligent destruction of the planet, and builds on the long term excuse that the global temperature surge predicted by high sensitivity climate models is being masked by aerosol pollution.
Aerosols have long been a convenient excuse, in my opinion, for why global temperatures have failed to surge. They allow climate scientists to crank up their predictions for CO2 forced warming, so long as they counterbalance the predicted CO2 effect by cranking up the predicted cooling effect of aerosols.
Of course, if global temperatures do plunge, it will be fascinating to see how long they can keep making such excuses with a straight face.
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